{"id":7877,"date":"2026-07-15T21:17:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T21:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/15\/bitcoin-to-40000-if-historys-anything-to-go-by-its-possible-says-report\/"},"modified":"2026-07-15T21:17:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T21:17:00","slug":"bitcoin-to-40000-if-historys-anything-to-go-by-its-possible-says-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/15\/bitcoin-to-40000-if-historys-anything-to-go-by-its-possible-says-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin to $40,000? If History\u2019s Anything to Go By, It\u2019s Possible, Says Report"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin Magazine<\/a><\/p>\n

Bitcoin to $40,000? If History\u2019s Anything to Go By, It\u2019s Possible, Says Report<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Bitcoin has underperformed compared to other \u201crisk-on\u201d assets this year \u2014 and if history\u2019s anything to go by, its price could dip as low as $38,000 by October.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s according to a new report<\/a> by NYDIG, which reveals that the asset\u2019s current slump is down to supply mechanics rather than risk sentiment.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s price has in the past moved with tech stocks but 2026 has been different: AI-related equities have soared while crypto markets have slumped. Bitcoin was recently priced at $64,809, down nearly 30% year-to-date and close to 50% less than its October all-time high of $126,080.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cBitcoin\u2019s 2025\u20132026 drawdown is bringing the 4-year cycle narrative back into focus, because the timing and structure increasingly resemble the prior reset years of 2014, 2018, and 2022 even though the path has not matched those drawdowns exactly,\u201d the report read.\u00a0<\/p>\n

NYDIG revealed that Bitcoin\u2019s year-to-date performance makes it the worst-performing asset \u2014 losing out against US treasuries, silver, and currencies like the Swiss Franc.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It added that if Bitcoin\u2019s price action were to match other drawdowns \u2014 like the bear market of 2022 \u2014 a \u201cpotential cycle low near $38k-$39k\u201d was possible.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The good news: Bitcoin had its least volatile year ever in 2025, and some analysts opining that this year\u2019s drawdown may be shallower than in previous bear markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Is Bitcoin digital gold?<\/h2>\n

NYDIG added that Bitcoin\u2019s rolling correlation with gold increased during 2026\u2019s second quarter, with both assets experiencing sell-offs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has been correlated to the precious metal in the past and Bitcoiners have described the top digital coin as \u201cdigital gold.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

But the asset last year was more correlated with US equities \u2014 especially tech stocks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

NYDIG added that other commodities experienced sell-offs in the second quarter of 2026, with the so-called debasement trade losing momentum. Traders in 2025 spoke of the \u201cdebasement trade\u201d as a hot move to hedge against the dollar \u2014 and other fiat currencies \u2014 losing value.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bitwise said<\/a> in a report last week that while Bitcoin closed Q2 2026 in its deepest and longest downturn since the last bear market, the fundamentals are in place for a quick recovery, with regulators passing crypto-friendly legislation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

NYDIG added that the passing of the market-structure CLARITY Act<\/a> \u201cis the most important forward catalyst for the digital asset industry.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cFor Bitcoin, CLARITY\u2019s direct price impact is less significant than for altcoins and crypto equities, but the investment implication remains material because a clearer U.S. market-structure regime would benefit the entire industry,\u201d it noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This post Bitcoin to $40,000? If History\u2019s Anything to Go By, It\u2019s Possible, Says Report<\/a> first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine<\/a> and is written by Mathew Di Salvo<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin to $40,000? If History\u2019s Anything to Go By, It\u2019s Possible, Says Report Bitcoin has underperformed compared to other \u201crisk-on\u201d assets this year \u2014 and if history\u2019s anything to go by, its price could dip as low as $38,000 by October.\u00a0 That\u2019s according to a new report by NYDIG, which reveals that the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":7878,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7877","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7877"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7877\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7878"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7877"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7877"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7877"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}