VanEck noted that Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets after the October deleveraging.
\nJustin d\u2019Anethan said Bitcoin\u2019s rise in a low-leverage environment shows excess speculation has eased.
\nMicha\u00ebl van de Poppe predicted bitcoin could hit $100,000 after a clean move above $92,000.<\/p>\n
Global investment management firm VanEck believes the first three months of 2026 could favour a risk-on environment, as investors regain something markets have lacked for years: clearer direction on key policy forces.<\/p>\n
In a Q1 2026 outlook published on Tuesday<\/a>, the firm pointed to improving visibility around US fiscal conditions, monetary policy expectations, and major investment themes.<\/p>\n That set-up is typically supportive for riskier corners of the market, such as AI and tech stocks, as well as crypto.<\/p>\n However, VanEck said Bitcoin is sending a different message, with short-term signals becoming harder to trust after a break in its usual cycle behaviour.<\/p>\n VanEck said markets are entering 2026 with \u201cvisibility,\u201d framing it as a more stable phase compared to the uncertainty that dominated previous years.<\/p>\n The firm\u2019s base case is that investors will face fewer shocks linked to fiscal and monetary decisions, creating a backdrop where risk assets can perform more confidently.<\/p>\n It added that improved clarity around policy direction is part of what makes the first quarter attractive for risk-taking.<\/p>\n At the same time, VanEck stressed that its views are medium-term in nature, rather than based on short-lived market events.<\/p>\n Despite expecting supportive conditions for risk assets, VanEck said bitcoin\u2019s typical four-year cycle \u201cbroke in 2025,\u201d making it difficult to rely on traditional timing signals.<\/p>\n The firm said this has contributed to a more cautious stance over the next three to six months.<\/p>\n VanEck also noted that not everyone inside the company shares the same level of caution, with some executives still taking a more constructive view on bitcoin\u2019s immediate cycle.<\/p>\n The split highlights how unclear the near-term set-up has become, even as broader macro direction appears easier to read.<\/p>\n VanEck also flagged that bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets in recent months.<\/p>\n The move followed a major deleveraging event in October, which changed how bitcoin has traded relative to both equities and traditional safe-haven assets.<\/p>\n This matters because bitcoin\u2019s correlation with other markets has often shaped how investors position it in a broader portfolio.<\/p>\n If those relationships weaken, it becomes harder to treat bitcoin as a simple extension of risk sentiment, particularly when leverage conditions shift.<\/p>\n Crypto investor Will Clemente said<\/a> the current mix of market and geopolitical conditions is closely aligned with what Bitcoin was built for.<\/p>\n He pointed to pressure on the Fed chair, rising metals as countries diversify reserves, record highs in stocks and risk assets, and increasing geopolitical risk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Meanwhile, crypto analyst Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe said<\/a> he expects Bitcoin to reclaim six figures before the end of January.<\/p>\n He noted there has been no dip below the 21-day moving average, with buyers stepping in to accumulate around these levels.<\/p>\n He added that a clear move above $92,000 could push BTC to $100,000 within a maximum of 10 days.<\/p>\n The post Risk-on is back, says VanEck, as Bitcoin decouples and short-term signals fade<\/a> appeared first on CoinJournal<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" VanEck noted that Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets after the October deleveraging. Justin d\u2019Anethan said Bitcoin\u2019s rise in a low-leverage environment shows excess speculation has eased. Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe predicted bitcoin could hit $100,000 after a clean move above $92,000. Global investment management firm VanEck believes the first three months of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":6045,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-6044","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6044","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6044"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6044\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}VanEck sees clearer policy conditions for early 2026<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin cycle break complicates the near-term picture<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin decouples after October deleveraging<\/h2>\n
Analysts debate the next move as BTC retests $92,000<\/h2>\n