{"id":2214,"date":"2025-01-08T20:16:20","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T20:16:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/08\/dont-buy-the-bitcoin-dip\/"},"modified":"2025-01-08T20:16:20","modified_gmt":"2025-01-08T20:16:20","slug":"dont-buy-the-bitcoin-dip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/08\/dont-buy-the-bitcoin-dip\/","title":{"rendered":"Don’t Buy The Bitcoin Dip"},"content":{"rendered":"

Follow Frank on X<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With bitcoin\u2019s price dipping significantly below $100k again, the \u201cbuy the dip\u201d cheerleaders are out in full force.<\/p>\n

But I\u2019m here to offer a different perspective, which is simply: Don\u2019t buy the dip.<\/p>\n

Before I continue, let me please make it clear that nothing that I write in this Take is investment advice.<\/em><\/p>\n

Why would I say such a thing? Is it that I hate bitcoin all of a sudden?<\/p>\n

No.<\/p>\n

I have other reasons for making such a statement.<\/p>\n

The first is that I\u2019m trying to keep you from becoming exit liquidity<\/a> for people like this:<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t worry guys.<\/p>\n

The retards are coming. pic.twitter.com\/1YL8keRHYa<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Breadman (@BTCBreadMan) January 8, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

The second is that I like to buy bitcoin when it\u2019s truly selling at a discount, not just when it appears to be selling at one.<\/p>\n

Let me explain.<\/p>\n

Right now, bitcoin is trading about 13% off of its all-time highs. While that may be a significant discount for an asset in the world of traditional finance, it\u2019s hardly more than a daily fluctuation in the world of bitcoin.<\/p>\n

In the four-year bitcoin cycles<\/a>, bitcoin\u2019s price tends to skyrocket during the years of and after its halving<\/a>. And then the year that follows tends to be pretty terrible for bitcoin\u2019s price. During that year, bitcoin\u2019s price hits a low, which tends to be in the range of the prior cycle\u2019s high.<\/p>\n

That was a bit confusing, so let me give you an example.<\/p>\n

In 2022, the last \u201cpretty terrible\u201d year, bitcoin’s price dropped to about $15,500, which was actually about $3,500 lower than bitcoin\u2019s top from the previous cycle \u2014 $20,000.<\/p>\n

If something comparable were to happen in 2026, we\u2019d see bitcoin\u2019s price at approximately $53k (23% below the previous cycle\u2019s all-time high of $69k). Now, that would be a significant discount and a dip worth buying.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t share this perspective to dissuade you from continuing with something like a dollar-cost averaging bitcoin investment strategy (one of the best strategies out there for the average retail investor). Instead, I share it because if a loved one came to me and asked me if now was a good time to buy bitcoin, I\u2019d say \u201cnot really.\u201d<\/p>\n

I try to maximize the financial upside (in fiat terms) of investing in bitcoin as much as possible for those who ask me about investing in it \u2014 especially those who are new to it. And while I could maybe help someone trade in and out of a bitcoin position in the next year or so, I don\u2019t like to do this, as I encourage people to buy and hold bitcoin for the long haul.<\/p>\n

But, Frank, the U.S. might announce a <\/em>Strategic Bitcoin Reserve<\/em><\/a> and other nations may follow suit! And look at all the <\/em>companies buying bitcoin for their treasuries<\/em><\/a>!<\/em><\/p>\n

Yes, these things are happening, and so are things like\u00a0Bhutan selling bitcoin<\/a> and so have things like Germany selling bitcoin<\/a> and\u00a0Tesla selling bitcoin<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Up until now, all bitcoin price cycles have been similar. So, while it looks like we have another year of bitcoin price upside in store for us, I think we drop far lower than this current price level when the tables turn.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s when I\u2019ll be proactively buying.<\/p>\n

This article is a <\/em>Take<\/em><\/a>. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Follow Frank on X. With bitcoin\u2019s price dipping significantly below $100k again, the \u201cbuy the dip\u201d cheerleaders are out in full force. But I\u2019m here to offer a different perspective, which is simply: Don\u2019t buy the dip. Before I continue, let me please make it clear that nothing that I write in this Take is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2215,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2214","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2214\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/digkrypton.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}